Activity folder, the latest economic data was slightly better than expected, causing the Moody analysis to raise its forecast for growth may of 170,000, up from 165,000 last week.
“The best evidence comes from studies of the works and producers”, wrote Moody economists. Studies have shown that “the April delay of factory employment is temporary phenomenon.”
One sign of the possible strengthening of the market of the project by April, when the economy added only 115,000 projects came in this morning the new claims for unemployment benefits. Last week, 370,000 people, for initial benefits, compared to 389,000 one month earlier. Since last week included the 12th day of the month is a week, of which will be based may monthly report on projects.
The latest data does not change the larger picture, albeit. Of Moody estimates average monthly job growth of 183,000 in the six months between now and election day (almost unchanged from 182,000 a week ago). As I noted last week in the debut of new jobs the Tracker The Times:
History of presupposes that this year’s elections would probably be very close if the economy added 100,000 to 175,000 jobs per month during the six months before election day. (These criteria come from a work by Nate silver and of The Times FiveThirtyEight blog.) Job growth over 175,000 will tend to President Obama’s favorite. Growth below 100 000 will make Mitt Romney, presumptive Republican nominee ‘s, favorite …
Historically, nothing-not social problems, campaign ads or gaffes-influenced voters more strongly from the direction of the economy in the year of the election. In only three races, after the second world war is the results, is different from what you will be offered the economy direction: 1952, (where the popular Dwight D. Eisenhower is running), 1968, (where Vietnam war hobbled Democrats) and 1976 (when Watergate hobbled Republicans).
For now the estimate assumes that the rhythm of the cycle of the project will be modest assistance of Mr. Obama in November. Although the direction of the economy, rather than the general condition is the most prognozator of the elections, the fact that the last few years are so rough to obviously complicate the situation this year.
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